“It all boils down to math!”
Saturday, April 28th, 2007Live play has been very good to me in the last couple months. I have not had a sick run of cards or been running particularly good. However, my confidence has been soaring as I have been playing a lot more live games recently. One of the things that has been very heartening has been my ability to read my opponents and put them on hands in key situations. For example: Last night I was playing a $5/10 game in the Borgata in AC. The table had been allowing a lot limping and I had not been getting a lot of great cards all evening. 2 limpers ahead of me and I had JQh in late position. I limped with them and the SB and BB completed. Flop was 49J rainbow. All checked to me and I bet $50 into the $50 pot. SB and UTG both called. The SB loved to play any two cards but the UTG player tended to only play good hands. The turn brought a blank 6 that I didn’t think helped anyone. I figured the SB was on a draw and put the UTG on a Jx or a pair like TT. They both checked and I bet $250 into the $200 pot hoping to push out the draw and take down the pot right now. The SB called convincing me that he was on a draw and the UTG folded. A threatening Ace hit the river and the UTG player almost immediately bet out $350. There was no flush draw on the board at any time, so I couldn’t put the UTG player on an ace for a flush draw. Also an ace wouldn’t make sense to be in his hand for the draws that I put him on. I really thought he had either T8 or TQ. Those are the only two hands I had him on to this point in the hand. I also knew the SB was an experienced player who could bluff if he missed his draw, especially if this would be the only way for him to win the hand. Thus, his bet not only didn’t surprise me, it was almost expected. All this went through my head in a few milliseconds and I made the call within 5 seconds. I immediately turned over my JQ and the UTG player started moaning immediately, ‘ I can’t believe this shit! I folded AJ!’ The SB slowly turned over his hand revealing TQ and boosting my confidence in my reading ability. Looking back on the last couple days, this wasn’t my biggest hand by far, but it illustrates how in certain situations, I have been able to read accurately and more importantly ACT upon the reads properly in the heat of battle. Two players on that table asked me ‘ Just HOW did you make that call?’ “I went with my read,” was my response. This hand garnered me MUCH more respect at the table afterwards.
The day before I was involved in a very big hand that in the end boiled down to a read again and math. I was on a fairly aggressive table which raised $40-$75 for nearly every preflop. I had about $2000 chips and called a $50 raise with As9s in the cutoff. The initial raiser, a middle position caller and myself saw the 9dTsJs flop together. The initial raiser bet $150 into this pot. The middle position player raised to $300. I hoped to draw cheaply to my flush and called expecting the initial raiser to call or fold. Instead he reraised to $900 total. The middle position player immediately threw $2000 chips into the pot covering both of us remaining players. My initial reaction was to think damn, he obviously has QK and I have to fold! I then forced myself to look at the betting and do the math. $165 pot preflop. $150 initial bet, raise to $300, call $300. A reraise that contributed $750 more. I had put $350 chips in the pot already and had $1650 left behind. Thus I could win $1650 of the $2000 chips the middle position player had contributed in the last raise. Thus I had to call $1650 to win $1665 plus $1650. I was getting almost exactly 2-1 on my call if I made it. I reviewed the betting in my head and the more I thought about it, the more convinced I was that the last raiser had KQ. This was important because if he had a set, any board pair would kill my flush and keep me from winning the hand. However, the middle position player had acted very quickly in each of the rounds of betting. A set would require more thinking for most people to throw $2000 into a pot when he wouldn’t be guaranteed the best hand. If the mid position player had a set, my odds of winning were much lower and I can’t justify the call. IF the initial bettor has a set and decides to come into the pot, then I will get 3-1 on my money and that is what I need if I am up against a set. The math says go and I decided to go with my read and pushed my remaining chips in the pot. The initial bettor folded his hand at this point and says, ‘I folded the ignorant end of the str8.’ The middle position player flips over KQ to my relief. A beautiful 3s hits the turn and my opponent is drawing dead! A meaningless 9 hits the river and I get pushed the monster pot.
Many people at the table expressed shock that I had made the call with just the draw to which I replied, ‘It was just math in the end!’ However it was my turn to express inward shock when I realized from the ensuing discussion that NO one at the table was able to articulate the math behind the call! I was friendly with a player who had sat next to me for some time and we quietly discussed the math. He said I needed 2.5 times on my money to make the call. I asked him to explain and he said, ‘You had 9 flush outs and therefore you were 40% to win the hand.’ ‘Ok’, I replied, so how does that make me 2.5 to one against to win. He couldn’t explain it. Two others overheard our discussion and it was clear that THEY had no clue about outs or odds either! I am truly shocked that these opponents could sit at a $5/10 table with $1500 in front of them and NOT know basic poker outs and math odds! This is great to know that my average opponent knows little to nothing of pot odds in a firm way.
I love live poker in Atlantic City!